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Energy Information Administration
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 16, 1996
EIA Forecasts World Oil Demand of 99 Million Barrels per Day in 2015, Adequate Supplies to Meet 50 Percent Growth in Total Energy Demand
Continued growth in world oil consumption, from 69 to 99 million barrels per day, will help drive a 50-percent increase in world energy demand over the next 20 years, according to a report released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The International Energy Outlook 1996 projects sufficient oil supply to meet anticipated growth in demand with a moderate rise in world prices.
Despite the projected increase in demand for oil, its share of world energy consumption is expected to shrink slightly over the forecast period. Demand for natural gas is expected to grow faster than any other fuel. The natural gas share of total world energy consumption is expected to increase by 3 percentage points over the projection period, to 25 percent by 2015.
The Outlook's demand projections are substantially increased over last year's projections. Total world energy consumption is projected to reach 495 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) by 2010, about 5 percent higher than projections from the 1995 report. The increase reflects stronger expectations for economic growth in developing nations which propel increased use of energy for electric power generation and for personal transportation. Electricity demand is projected to nearly double over the forecast period (particularly in the newly emerging Asian economies).
Forecast highlights include:
The report may be accessed electronically from EIA's FTP Server on the Internet by connecting to ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/pdf/international/048496.pdf and after May 21st by connecting to http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo96/front.html. Copies of International Energy Outlook 1996 are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office, 202/512-1800, or through EIA's National Energy Information Center (NEIC), Room IF-048, Forrestal Building, Washington DC 20585, 202/586-8800.
- Rapid growth in natural gas demand is attributed to: the advantage of natural gas over other fossil fuels in promoting clean air, technological developments increasing the competitive potential of natural-gas-fired electricity plants, and abundant reserves and rapidly expanding infrastructure.
- Electricity demand is projected to nearly double over the forecast period, growing to 19 trillion kilowatthours by 2015. Growing world dependence on electricity should result in dramatic changes to the electric power industry in terms of ownership, regulation, and industrial structure (i.e., the division of the industry into its three major functions: generation, transmission, and distribution). Further, the primary fuel mix for world electricity generation is expected to change substantially over the projection period. For example, the natural gas share increases by 5 percentage points, from 16 percent in 1995 to 21 percent in 2015, due largely to its increased utilization in the OECD.
- Worldwide, the largest gains in energy use occur in the developing region of Asia where energy demand increases by 124 percent between 1995 and 2015 in the reference case forecast. The strong Asian increases in energy demand are a result of strong economic growth in the emerging economies of this region. Strong economic growth results in higher standards of living, meaning increased energy use for electricity generation and for personal transportation.
- Historically, substantial differences in economic growth rates exist according to region. In an attempt to capture the differences in regional uncertainty, the Outlook includes projections from two economic growth cases, in addition to the reference case. The high economic growth case uses a world average annual GDP growth rate of 4.1 percent; the low growth case uses 2.2 percent over the forecast period. The associated spread in total international energy consumption is 150 quadrillion Btuequivalent to nearly one-third of the 542 quadrillion Btu total consumption projected in 2015 for the reference case.
- By 2015, world carbon emissions are projected to exceed 1990 levels by 54 percent. By 2000, emissions in the developing non-OECD countries surpass those of the OECD. The sizeable rise in non-OECD emissions is a result of their heavy dependence on coal, especially in the emerging economies of Asia. Only the EE/FSU region is projected to sustain emissions below 1990 levels because full recovery from the region's economic collapse in the early and mid-1990s with resulting lower energy use is not expected for at least another decade.
EIA Program Contact: Mary Hutzler, 202/586-2222
EIA Press Contact: Thomas Welch, (202) 586-1178
DOE News Media Contact: Joanna Stancil, 202/586-5806
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File Last Modified: May 16, 1996
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