One can run such a model for any number of policy options - for example development of renewable energies, emphasis on nuclear, the hydrogen economy and so on. What emerges is that UNLESS action is taken soon, and there is a major diversion of capital resources into non-oil systems, the global economy will go though a peak about 2030, with disastrous effect on the developing world, not to mention a financial crisis in the developed world.
Outcomes are sensitive to the choices we as a global society make. What is the best mix of alternative energy sources and how can they best be phased in? What are we willing to trade off for future benefit? Clearly the outcome is also data sensitive, including just how much oil and gas there is and what it will take to extract it. This approach cannot take account of geo-political factors which may exacerbate the situation long before 2030.
We have sought to lay out the argument in simple non-technical language in our recent book 'Not by money alone.... economics as nature intended', published by Jon Carpenter Publishing, Oxford (authors King & Slesser) ISBN 1-897766-72-6. Direct sales from the publisher @ +44-1689-870-437 price post free in UK £11.99, add 20% for EU and 20% elsewhere; or bookshops
Jane King & Malcolm Slesser
World politics in the age of oil depletion: Paying for Petrol with Human Lives with comments on the book.