The North Sea
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For more information, go to the sections on the UK and Norway.
Steep Declines of Norwegian Oil Production Continues [2006 October]
"The blog http://energikrise.blogspot.com/ recently posted an update with illustrative diagrams of the development in Norwegian (regular) oil production based on historical data as of August 2006 from NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate).

"Norway is presently the world's third largest net exporter of oil.

"In the post it is documented that for the Norwegian fields starting to flow prior to 2001/2002 the collective year over year relative decline rate has been running between 13 and 15 % for more than a year!"

Peak Oil: a Turning for Mankind, Hubbert Center Newsletter # 2001/2-1, M. King Hubbert Center For Petroleum Supply Studies, Colorado School Of Mines [2001 April]

"The North Sea is now at peak, with the UK being off 7% in 2000 and 16% off October to October, meaning that production is set to fall by one-half in ten years...."

Simmons warns of North Sea collapse, The Scotsman, Jeremy Cresswell [Friday, 27th April 2001]

UK North Sea oil production is collapsing, despite forecasts that it should reach a new high this year, Houston energy bank Simmons & Company International warned yesterday.

The failure of the oil majors to sustain drilling and investment in new projects during the oil price slump of late 1977 through 1999 is blamed for the shock fall.

It is widely expected that the North Sea will reach its final oil peak this year, before declining. But Simmons says the lack of sufficient new fields coming onstream to counter falling output from existing ones has wrecked that hope....

In a separate report out yesterday, the Royal Bank of Scotland claimed that the UK oil and gas service sector had bounced back from the slump and that prospects were the "most optimistic" for three years.

However, chief economist Jeremy Peat said that the best prospects for business were overseas.

As for North Sea production, Peat added that much effort would be needed there to sustain momentum."

Are these experts calling for the triumph of hope over experience?

See The Impact of Declining Major North Sea Oil Fields upon Future North Sea Production, Roger Blanchard [ October 1999, revised January 2000, used by permission]

"... This paper provides data for declining major oil fields in one important oil production region of the world.

"The North Sea has been a major oil production province since its first significant production in the middle 1970s. In 1998, North Sea oil production represented nearly 9% of world oil production. North Sea fields were selected for this analysis because high quality data are available for individual oil fields, because the North Sea has been a key factor in increasing non-OPEC oil production over the last 20 years, and because the best available technology is used in the North Sea. Norway and the United Kingdom (U.K.) are the main oil producing countries in the North Sea and major oil fields within these two countries will be analyzed...."

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